Issue 21: Resetting the Scoreboard
What still works, what doesn’t, and what the data says heading into the year ahead
The start of the year has a way of forcing a reset.
Assumptions get tested, expectations get adjusted, and the data starts to matter more than the narrative.
That is the lens for this week’s stories.
They focus on what growth actually looks like once it is broken down, where markets are cooling after long runs, and how different regions and sectors are positioning for what comes next.
Taken together, they offer a clearer read on how the year is beginning to take shape and which signals deserve attention now.
📈 BY THE NUMBERS
China’s Economy Shrinks to Reset
Rhodium argues China is entering a “rightsizing” phase where growth slows structurally as demographics, debt, and weaker productivity reshape the economy heading into 2026.
Takeaway for allocators:
China exposure increasingly depends on policy support and sector selection, not broad growth assumptions.
📡 HEADLINE SIGNAL
Tech Stocks Cool Into Year-End
U.S. tech stocks eased as 2025 closed, reflecting valuation caution after a strong year and light holiday trading. The pause suggests investors are reassessing growth expectations and positioning as capital allocators reset for the year ahead.
Takeaway for founders:
Investor tone is shifting toward discipline. Expect tougher questions on durability and margins in early 2026.
📈 BY THE NUMBERS
Where Growth Came From
The BLS breaks down U.S. industry growth since 1990 into output, productivity, and hours worked, showing that sectors have followed very different paths. Some grew through efficiency gains, while others expanded mainly by adding labor, with productivity-driven growth becoming more concentrated over time.
Takeaway for allocators:
Growth driven by productivity tends to be more durable than growth driven by labor. This distinction helps allocators assess margins, inflation sensitivity, and which sectors are better positioned for sustainable returns.
📡 HEADLINE SIGNAL
Africa Builds Institutional AI Skills
The African Union launched AI training programs for public institutions, signaling growing readiness beyond traditional tech hubs. The focus on governance and real-world application shows a shift from experimentation toward practical, long-term deployment.
Takeaway for founders:
AI demand is global and institutional. Founders who think beyond core markets may find early traction.
A Moment to Pause ❄️
As the year begins, I hope you were able to spend some time over the holidays with the people who matter most to you. These moments have a way of grounding us and offering perspective on how much of what we build is shaped by the relationships around us.
Wishing you a steady close to the year and a thoughtful start to what comes next. I’m grateful to be sharing this work with such a thoughtful community and looking forward to continuing the conversation in the year ahead.
That’s it for this week.
Thanks for reading the latest Dispatch. If you made it this far, you’re part of the shift. 🌊
See you next week, with more plays worth tracking.
— Thomas
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